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| Prediction strategy of response of structures and the new reliability analysis method |
| Received:May 25, 2023 Revised:July 20, 2023 |
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| DOI：10.7511/jslx20230525004 |
| KeyWord:reliability analysis probability density evolution method kriging response prediction |
| Author | Institution |
| 周锦 |
同济大学 土木工程学院, 上海 |
| 李杰 |
同济大学 土木工程学院, 上海 ;上海市防灾救灾研究所, 上海 |
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| Abstract: |
| Engineering structures inevitably suffer from various uncertainties during their service life,and in order to objectively and scientifically describe the influence of these uncertainties,the reliability theory of engineering structures has been developed.However,it is difficult to widely apply traditional reliability analysis methods to actual engineering structures due to accuracy and efficiency issues.In recent years,based on the principle of probability conservation,probability density evolution theory was proposed and has been well developed.Compared with the traditional reliability analyses theory,the probabilistic density evolution method can greatly reduce the number of deterministic structural analyses and obtain satisfactory accuracy.However,for increasingly complex engineering structures,the problems such as inefficiency remain to be solved.To this end,we proposes the concept of two-stage partition of probability space,in which a small number of representative samples obtained by coarse partition are used to form a training set to train the Kriging model|then the probability space is finely profiled,and the trained Kriging model predicts the encrypted sample response to improve the analysis efficiency.On this basis,a new reliability analysis method is proposed by combining the physical synthesis method based on the probability density evolution theory.The applicability of the new proposed method is demonstrated by predicting the response and reliability of an analytical system and a reinforced concrete frame structure. |
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