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| Time-dependent reliability analysis based on probability density of first-passage time point |
| Received:April 16, 2019 Revised:June 04, 2019 |
| View Full Text View/Add Comment Download reader |
| DOI：10.7511/jslx20190416001 |
| KeyWord:time-dependent reliability first-passage time probability density origin moments maximum entropy method cumulative probability density function |
| Author | Institution |
| 俞水 |
电子科技大学 机械与电气工程学院, 成都 |
| 汪忠来 |
电子科技大学 机械与电气工程学院, 成都 |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the first-passage time probability density (F-PTPD) for the time-dependent limit state function,an approach for estimating the cumulative probability density function of mechanical products over the whole lifecycle is proposed,which provides an effective analytical method for reliability analysis and design of mechanical products.Firstly,the sparse grid based stochastic collocation method is employed to obtain the mean value function of time-dependent limit state function,and the first-passage time point of the mean value function is obtained while the mean value function equals zero.The limit state function is then decomposed into a second-order Taylor series about time,meanwhile,the first-passage time point function about input random variables is established via using the property of the quadratic function.The fourth origin moments of the first-passage time point function are estimated by employing the sparse grid based stochastic collocation method.Finally,the probability model of the first-passage time point for the limit state function can be obtained by the combination of the fourth origin moments and the maximum entropy method,so the cumulative probability density function can be estimated. |
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