|
|
| Received:March 10, 2015 Revised:June 18, 2015 |
| View Full Text View/Add Comment Download reader |
| DOI：10.7511/jslx201603022 |
| KeyWord:concrete structure long-term deformation stochastic analysis LHS Bayesian theory |
| Author | Institution |
| 张正阳 |
西南交通大学 桥梁工程系, 成都 |
| 赵人达 |
西南交通大学 桥梁工程系, 成都 |
| 徐腾飞 |
西南交通大学 桥梁工程系, 成都 |
|
| Hits: 1567 |
| Download times: 979 |
| Abstract: |
| The long-term deformation prediction method based on Bayesian theory for concrete structures becomes weak when the prediction work should be carried out before the structure being constructed.Because there is no measured value of short-term deformation to build the likelihood function,and the standard deviation of the short-term deformation,an important part of the likelihood function,is difficult to acquire for a real structure.An alternative method of Bayesian for predicting long-term deformation of the concrete structure was provided in this paper.Prior distribution of variables were revised by taking advantage of data of variable experiment.The stochastic analysis was carried out by using Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method based on the revised distribution of the variable.The prediction results of 4 concrete beams indicate that the uncertainty of the revised distribution decreases by nearly 50%.The revised prediction results show a good coincidence with the Bayesian prediction results and the experimental data. |
|
|
|