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| Structural fragility estimation with beta-binomial distribution |
| Received:July 11, 2013 Revised:October 28, 2013 |
| View Full Text View/Add Comment Download reader |
| DOI：10.7511/jslx201406012 |
| KeyWord:structural fragility beta-binomial distribution logistic regression model statistical dependence observations indicators threshold Monte Carlo |
| Author | Institution |
| 刘骁骁 |
西北工业大学 力学与土木建筑学院, 西安 |
| 吴子燕 |
西北工业大学 力学与土木建筑学院, 西安 |
| 王其昂 |
西北工业大学 力学与土木建筑学院, 西安 |
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| Abstract: |
| The uncertainty of seismic excitation and structural parameters in the process of establishing fragility curves leads to statistical dependence among observations,which has been neglected in past applications.In this paper,a new methodology based on beta-binomial distribution to calculate structural fragility is presented.Observations indicating the states (failure or survival) are confirmed via quantitative indicators threshold as well as Monte Carlo after each earthquake.Beta-Binomial distribution is addressed to discuss the statistical dependence among observations.Improved cumulative beta-binomial distribution function is derivation to calculate failure probability combined with logistic regression model.Seismic vulnerability curve can be fitted by means of cumulative lognormal distribution,which is compared with traditional fragility that of neglecting statistical dependence among observations and fragility curve considering statistical dependence among observed failure rates.A seat eight floors reinforced concrete frame-shear structure is used as an example to illustrate the approach:fragility curve considered statistical dependence is larger than traditional fragility,and the proposed method taken into account statistical dependence among failures will be better conservative to ensure the safety of structures. |