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考虑参数不确定性的输电塔泥石流易损性分析
Vulnerability Analysis of Transmission Towers subjected to Debris Flow Considering Parameter Uncertainty
投稿时间:2025-02-20  修订日期:2025-03-14
DOI:
中文关键词:  泥石流  参数不确定性  易损性分析  输电塔结构
英文关键词:debris flow  parameter uncertainty  vulnerability analysis  transmission tower structure
基金项目:国家电网有限公司科技项目资助(合同号5700-202433233A-1-1-ZN).
作者单位邮编
赵金雄* 国网甘肃省电力公司电力科学研究院 730070
于海 中国电力科学研究院 
董世文 中国电力科学研究院 
王关霖 国网甘肃省电力公司 
朱小琴 国网甘肃省电力公司电力科学研究院 
张祥全 国网甘肃省电力公司 
徐浩 国网甘肃省电力公司电力科学研究院 
彭林 中国电力科学研究院 
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中文摘要:
      泥石流是造成输电塔倒塌的重要自然灾害之一,研究输电塔的泥石流易损性具有重要意义。以位于某泥石流频发地段上的输电塔为研究对象,开展考虑参数不确定性的泥石流易损性分析。通过拉丁超立方抽样方法建立考虑输电塔结构参数不确定性模型,进而开展不同冲击高度泥石流的推覆分析,得到不同损伤程度的破坏特征荷载,进一步基于Monte-Carlo模拟分析,计算得到了输电塔结构的泥石流易损性曲线。结果表明:泥石流冲击高度对输电塔的损伤破坏影响非常显著;随着泥石流高度从3m增加到4m,不同损伤程度的破坏荷载下降约45%~55%;考虑参数不确定性后,输电塔结构的抗倒塌能力更不稳定,不同损伤程度的破坏荷载变化范围在11.77%~25.73%;随着泥石流高度增大,输电塔的泥石流易损性显著增长,当泥石流高度从1m增长至4m时,输电塔倒塌概率可从0%增大到6.73%。
英文摘要:
      Debris flow is one of the significant natural disasters causing the collapse of transmission towers, making the study of the vulnerability of transmission towers to debris flows of great importance. This research focuses on a transmission tower located in an area frequently affected by debris flows, and conducts vulnerability analysis that considers uncertainties. Probabilistic model considering the uncertainty of the transmission tower's structural parameters was established. Pushover analyses for debris flows of different depths were carried out to determine the characteristic failure loads for various degrees of damage. Based on Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the vulnerability curve of the transmission tower structure to debris flows was calculated. The results indicate that the depth of the debris flow has a significant impact on the damage and failure of the transmission tower; as the depth of the debris flow increases from 3m to 4m, the failure loads for different degrees of damage decrease by approximately 45% to 55%. After considering parameter uncertainties, the anti-collapse capability of the transmission tower structure becomes more unstable, with the range of failure loads for different degrees of damage varying between 11.77% and 25.73%. As the depth of the debris flow increases, the vulnerability of the transmission tower to debris flows significantly increases; when the depth of the debris flow increases from 1m to 4m, the probability of the transmission tower collapsing rises from 0% to 6.73%.
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